In this essay for The Free Press, Elliot Ackerman examines the U.S. operation in Venezuela and warns that the shadow of Iraq looms over any attempt at regime change.
Drawing on his experience as a Marine who came of age during the early days of the Iraq War, Ackerman argues that even a highly successful military operation can quickly give way to harder political questions.
The Question After Regime Change
Ackerman notes that the capture of Nicolás Maduro may appear to be a decisive military success. But as Iraq and Afghanistan showed, removing a leader is often easier than determining what comes next.
Military Success and Political Risk
The essay explores the legal, strategic, and political risks of intervention, including unclear authorization, vague objectives, possible boots on the ground, oil interests, and the danger of mission creep.
The Shadow of Iraq
At its center, the essay asks whether the United States is again mistaking tactical success for strategic victory. Ackerman warns that Venezuela’s instability, Chavista networks, and anti-American resentment could create conditions for a long and costly conflict.
The result is a cautionary argument about war, power, and the need for political clarity before military action becomes another forever war.