How Afghanistan Shaped the War in Ukraine
In this essay for The Atlantic, Elliot Ackerman examines how the United States’ experience in Afghanistan continues to shape Russia’s strategic thinking in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical rivalry between the two powers.
Drawing comparisons between America’s long war in Afghanistan and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ackerman explores how questions of time, alliances, attrition, manpower, and political endurance influence modern conflict.
The essay argues that both nations continue to study and adapt to each other’s military and political behavior through successive conflicts, creating a long-running strategic rivalry that stretches from the Cold War to the present war in Ukraine.
Ukraine, Russia, and Strategic Attrition
Ackerman examines how Russia shifted from rapid maneuver warfare to a slower war of attrition after its initial invasion plans in Ukraine stalled, drawing lessons from decades of observing American military campaigns and political decision-making.
The piece also explores how military resolve, domestic political pressure, casualty tolerance, and alliance cohesion shape the trajectory of prolonged conflicts.
Special attention is given to NATO credibility, sanctions, energy politics, Chinese support for Russia, and the geopolitical consequences of America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The Long U.S.-Russia Rivalry
The essay situates the war in Ukraine within a broader historical rivalry between the United States and Russia, tracing how each nation has repeatedly learned from the other through proxy wars, counterinsurgencies, and geopolitical competition.
Ackerman argues that the conflict in Ukraine represents another chapter in an ongoing struggle over military power, strategic endurance, and international influence in the modern world.
Read the Full Essay
This article originally appeared in The Atlantic.